Financial results from a rival could presage a pleasantly surprising quarter for Tripadvisor.
Shares of online travel company Tripadvisor (TRIP 0.92%) jumped by 10.7% in October, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence — but I’m afraid there’s not a satisfying explanation for the move. Other travel stocks such as Booking Holdings, Expedia, and Airbnb were up in October by comparable amounts. It seems that investors just had an appetite for companies in the space.
To be clear, Tripadvisor didn’t report any news last month, nor did analysts publish any reports on the company. The stock trended higher without an obvious catalyst.
Perhaps the most bullish news regarding Tripadvisor had to do with insider stock sales. CEO Matt Goldberg and Chief Accounting Officer Geoffrey Gouvalaris both were granted stock options in October, and both promptly sold shares. But neither of them sold all of their newly awarded shares. Goldberg sold 48% of his new shares, while Gouvalaris sold just 33% of his.
It’s possible to view this through a bullish lens — if they were worried about Tripadvisor’s future, Goldberg and Gouvalaris could have sold all of those new shares. Instead, they each kept a majority of the new shares they were awarded, as well as the shares they owned beforehand.
That said, if this news played any role in driving Tripadvisor stock higher in October, I would imagine it was only a minor one. The truth is that stocks oscillate over the short term, and there’s not always a clear explanation as to why.
When will material Tripadvisor news come out?
If you’re hoping for some meatier news from Tripadvisor, you won’t have to wait much longer. The company will report its results for the third quarter after the market closes Wednesday. Management believes revenue could fall and its profit margins might take a step back.
Tripadvisor’s management provided this guidance in light of headwinds with its hotel business. It makes money from hotels with click-based advertising, and branded hotel revenue was one of its largest sources of revenue in the second quarter, when it fell 14% year over year. That paints a troubling picture.
However, Booking Holdings reported its Q3 results on Oct. 30, and outperformed its expectations for room nights on its platform by 3 percentage points. In other words, there was unexpectedly strong travel demand driving Booking Holdings’ results. Perhaps the same will be true for Tripadvisor.
Looking longer term
Tripadvisor is fortunate that there’s more to its business than the core platform. The company also owns two other promising travel platforms: experience platform Viator and restaurant booking platform TheFork. Both of these have continued to post double-digit percentage growth rates as the Tripadvisor platform’s growth has stalled.
I believe Tripadvisor has two golden opportunities with Viator and TheFork. With its upcoming Q3 report, I want to hear how management plans to continue to grow those businesses and offset the weakness of the Tripadvisor platform.
Jon Quast has positions in Airbnb. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Booking Holdings, and Tripadvisor. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
