Pagaya Technologies delivered impressive fourth-quarter results, surpassing analysts’ estimates on multiple metrics.
Pagaya Technologies (PGY 21.73%), a leader in AI-powered financial technology solutions, released its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 13. The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.17, far exceeding the consensus estimate for a loss of $0.52 per share. Total revenue for the quarter was $279 million, surpassing projections and reflecting strong year-over-year growth. The results paint a robust picture for the period, with Pagaya Technologies demonstrating its capacity to leverage its technology to gain market share.
| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2024 Analysts’ Estimate | Q4 2023 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS (diluted) | $0.17 | ($0.52) | $0.20 | (15.0%) |
| Revenue | $279 million | $264 million | $218 million | 28.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $64 million | N/A | $34 million | 87.5% |
| Network volume | $2.6 billion | N/A | $2.38 billion | 9.4% |
Source: Analysts’ estimates for the quarter provided by FactSet.
Overview of Pagaya Technologies
Founded with a mission to revolutionize financial services, Pagaya Technologies harnesses artificial intelligence (AI) to refine credit evaluation processes. The company’s platform has facilitated over $1.8 trillion in loan applications. It excels in real-time risk assessment and credit decision-making, offering a significant competitive advantage. The company’s recent focus has been on enhancing its data network and expanding its market presence into auto loans and point-of-sale credit products.
Its growth strategy centers around the expansion of its AI capabilities and forming new partnerships. Pagaya aims to broaden its offerings beyond personal loans, fostering robust alliances with institutions like U.S. Bank and Elavon. This strategy is targeted at scaling up operations, which will be critical if the company is to achieve sustained profitability.
Quarterly Insights
During the fourth quarter, Pagaya Technologies recorded revenue of $279 million, surpassing analyst estimates of $264 million — a 5.7% outperformance. The standout figure in the report, however, was adjusted EBITDA of $64 million, an 88% increase from the previous year. This expansion in operational efficiency was reflected in the adjusted EBITDA margin, which grew by 728 basis points to 23.0%.
Despite its strong top-line performance, challenges persisted, particularly regarding net losses and impairments. Pagaya posted a net loss of $238 million for the quarter, in part due to non-cash fair value adjustments and stock-based compensation expenses. Additionally, credit impairments stemming from loans made between 2021 and 2023 indicated loan performance difficulties under previous market conditions.
Pagaya continued to foster growth through strategic enhancements in its technology and partnerships. Its AI-powered platform played a pivotal role in processing substantial loan applications, and the expansion of partnerships was evident through collaborations with companies such as OneMain and Elavon. Additionally, the company’s strong securitization activities, raising $6 billion via asset-backed securitizations in 2024, showcased investor confidence and strengthened its capital base from over 130 institutional entities.
2025 Outlook
In the first quarter, Pagaya Technologies forecasts network volume of $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion. That would be flat sequentially at the midpoint. However, the company anticipates a positive trajectory and network volume growth in 2025, with guidance for full-year volumes of $10.25 billion to $11.75 billion, compared to the $9.7 billion it achieved in 2024.
Management expects the company to reach GAAP profitability by mid-2025. With plans that aim for total revenue between $1.15 billion and $1.275 billion, Pagaya is committed to bolstering its financial structure. As the company expands, investors should keep an eye on its credit performance, which will be crucial as it attempts to maintain its strategic momentum.
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