A historic rise in home prices and nearly three years of high mortgage rates have put housing issues front and center in the 2024 presidential campaign. Kamala Harris has outlined an ambitious vision for housing that would involve the construction of 3 million new homes in four years.
At a policy discussion on Monday hosted by the Community Home Lenders of America (CHLA), Parrott Ryan Advisors owner Jim Parrott — a former White House housing policy leader during the Obama administration — said that Harris’ plan is heavy on supply-side initiatives. And that’s a good thing.
Parrott pointed to four key components:
🏡 Expanding the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program by increasing the credits available and decreasing the bond amounts to make the math pencil out
🏡 Providing a similar tool for single-family homebuilders who build and sell a home to a first-time homebuyer
🏡 Tax credits that would make it economically feasible for builders to purchase and renovate buildings that are falling into obsolescence, a key strategy in several Rust Belt cities
🏡 A $40 billion catch-all fund to deal with local zoning constraints and shortfalls in infrastructure
The most well-known component of the plan — $25,000 in direct assistance for first-time homebuyers — would only kick in when supply-side elements have made an impact.
Will it pass? An enormous amount depends on the makeup of Congress come January. Parrott said there are pieces of the proposal that Republicans could be open to — and a huge debate over tax reform that is playing out at the same time helps.
“If her whole proposal were about supersizing grants or appropriations, then I would say forget it, it’s just a campaign thing,” Parrott said. “But because most of what she’s pushing is a supply-side push and is on the tax side, there will be a pretty broad constituency … pushing this from industry and among stakeholders.”
Down payment assistance, along with funding for communities with zoning or infrastructure needs, have a lower likelihood of passage because they are based on appropriations, Parrott said. But the updates to LIHTC and the builder tax credit proposal are more promising, he added.
Should Harris not receive the support needed to pass key elements of the plan, there is another option. She would likely look to pull “administrative levers” at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), he said.
Trump housing initiatives
Meanwhile, Donald Trump‘s campaign has unveiled few specific housing policy proposals and has broadly tied the housing market to the overall economic climate. That’s according to Mark Calabria, the former head of the FHFA, who joined Parrott in the CHLA roundtable discussion.
He told the audience of lending executives that “jobs creation is a housing policy as well.” While the Harris campaign uses the existing framework, Trump is less likely to use the same toolkit, Calabria said. He noted that Trump would likely look at streamlining regulatory authority and doing some reforms around housing permits and land use to bring down the cost of housing.
“A lot of conversation in 2025 will be on individual taxes. … If I was a betting man, I would say it all gets extended for a year,” Calabria said, noting that neither candidate will have 60 votes in the Senate. “Things like the mortgage interest deduction, things like SALT (state and local taxes), perhaps things like tax credits on the buyer side or the builder side, all of that will be on the table.”
Calabria repeatedly said that the credit box expanded too much after he left the agency, which has driven up demand and reduced housing affordability. Trump would look to fix that administratively through the GSEs or its regulator, Calabria said.
Who would staff the administrations?
Should Harris prevail, Parrott said there would likely be a good number of regulators and agency executives who continue in their roles.
“My sense is you’ll see some key personnel folks decide they’ve done their time, which will give them a chance to get off the train but also give Harris a chance to rebrand her administration and turn the page,” Parrott said. “My guess is you won’t see deputy-level movement until much later.”
A Trump-led White House, according to Calabria, would clear out Democratic appointees on Inauguration Day.
“You’ll see acting (directors) in many of these roles. It’ll take you six, seven months to get a new FHFA, CFPB director in,” Calabria said. “Relative to 2016, there’s been more vetting. … A) I would expect more of an effort to change over existing personnel, and B) more preparation in terms of people who would be ready to go and have been vetted.”
In the initial stages, much of the policy would likely be directed by the White House, Calabria said.
