This tobacco stock keeps going up.
Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors of all time. As the manager of Duquesne Capital Management for nearly three decades, from 1981 to 2010, he generated an average annual return of 30% and never had a losing year.
Druckenmiller also worked closely with George Soros, helping to “break the Bank of England” through a massive short bet on the pound in 1992.
These days, Druckenmiller is retired as a hedge fund manager, but he still manages his own money through the Duquesne Family Office, and the billionaire’s moves are worth following. Druckenmiller was early to recognize the growth potential of Nvidia in artificial intelligence (AI), moving aggressively into the stock in Q4 2022 after ChatGPT was released, but he acknowledged recently that he sold it too early, dumping all of it earlier this year.
However, Druckenmiller made another smart buy earlier this year, buying 889,355 shares of Philip Morris International (PM -2.21%) and call options giving him the rights to buy another 963,000 shares of the tobacco stock.
Druckenmiller opened up a position in the stock in the second quarter, and though we don’t know exactly when he bought the stock, we do know that he’s up big on the dividend stock since then. Philip Morris has gained 30% since the end of the second quarter, an impressive feat for a high-yield dividend stock, and shares just surged on its third-quarter earnings report.
Let’s take a look at those numbers and where the business is today before discussing whether it makes sense to follow Druckenmiller into the stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
Philip Morris is on fire
Though smoking is in decline in much of the world, Philip Morris has adapted to that reality better than its two closest peers on the stock market, Altria and British American Tobacco.
Roughly 40% of its revenue now comes from next-gen products like its Iqos devices, which heat real tobacco without burning it, and Zyn, the popular oral nicotine pouches it gained in its acquisition of Swedish Match for $16 billion in 2022. It’s invested in growth in both those categories, adding new plants to expand production of Zyn, and rolling out Iqos in the U.S.
That strength was on display in the company’s third-quarter earnings report as Philip Morris blew past analyst estimates and the stock jumped 10.5% on Wednesday.
The tobacco company reported revenue of $9.91 billion, up 11.6% on an organic basis (meaning excluding the impact of currency exchange, divestitures, and acquisitions), and ahead of estimates of $9.69 billion. Organic revenue from its smoke-free business jumped 16.8% to $3.8 billion, and its combustibles business delivered 8.6% organic revenue growth thanks to rising prices and a 1.3% increase in cigarette volumes to 163.2 billion.
Its oral smoke-free business, primarily made up of Zyn, continued to shine with shipments up 22.2% to 4.4 billion.
That growth helped the company expand its margins, with organic operating income up 13.8% to $3.7 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) up 14.4% to $1.91.
Finally, the company also raised its full-year guidance, calling for adjusted EPS of $6.45 to $6.51, up from its prior range of $6.33 to $6.45 and compared to the consensus at $6.41. On a currency-neutral basis, it sees EPS of $6.85 to $6.91, up 14% to 15% from 2023.
Is Philip Morris a buy?
Druckenmiller hasn’t explained why he bought the international tobacco seller, but the recent results should offer some insights.
Philip Morris is executing flawlessly and delivering double-digit growth in a market that many consider to be in inevitable decline. While peers like Altria and British American Tobacco trade at single-digit price-to-earnings ratios, Philip Morris has earned a premium, trading at a P/E of 20 based on this year’s forecast.
Additionally, it offers a 4.5% dividend yield and just raised its dividend by 3.8% to $1.35 per quarter. Given the underlying growth in the business, the company shouldn’t have any problem raising its dividend in the coming years.
With profits growing in the mid-teens and lots of white space for Zyn and Iqos, the tobacco stock continues to look like a smart buy.
Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends British American Tobacco P.l.c. and Philip Morris International and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $40 calls on British American Tobacco and short January 2026 $40 puts on British American Tobacco. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
