nVent Electric Plc (NVT) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

nVent Electric Plc (NVT -10.00%)
Q3 2024 Earnings Call
Nov 01, 2024, 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the nVent Electric third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now turn the conference over to Tony Riter, vice president of investor relations. Please go ahead.

Tony Riter — Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you and welcome to nVent’s third-quarter 2024 earnings call. On the call with me are Beth Wozniak, our chair and chief executive officer, and Sara Zawoyski, our chief financial officer. They will provide details on our third-quarter performance, an outlook for the fourth quarter, and an update to our full-year 2024 outlook. Please take note.

As a result of the previously announced agreement to sell the thermal management business, the Company is reporting the results of this business as discontinued operations and has reclassified 2023 and 2024 results for all prior periods. In addition, guidance is now presented on a continuing operations basis. All results referenced throughout this presentation are a continued operations basis unless otherwise stated. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company’s anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in today’s press release and nVent’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Forward-looking statements are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today’s webcast is accompanied by a presentation which you can find in the Investors section of nVent’s website. References to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation.

We will have time for questions after our prepared remarks. Please limit your questions to one and one follow-up with that. Please turn to Slide 3 and I will turn the call over to Beth.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. It’s great to be with you today to share our strong third-quarter results. We continue to execute on our strategy for growth with a focus on high-growth verticals, new products, and global expansion. In the third quarter we delivered record sales, up 9% both on continuing operations and total basis.

Total adjusted earnings and cash flows were strong, coming in better than expected and we continue to make investments to expand our data solutions business. Our portfolio transformation is underway with the announced sale of the thermal management business and we expect the sale of the business to close by early 2025. Our most recent acquisition, Trachte, is off to a good start. Growing sales, strong double digits, and is a great new platform for nVent.

We believe these portfolio moves will make nVent a more focused and higher-growth electrical connection and protection leader and further position nVent with the electrification, sustainability, and digitalization trends. Now onto Slide 4 for a summary of our third-quarter performance. Sales in the quarter were up 1% organically led by infrastructure. Year-to-date new products have contributed over 3 points to sales growth and we’ve launched 77 new products.

Adjusted operating income grew 4% year over year with return on sales down 120 basis points due to investments and mix. Adjusted EPS was $0.63. We generated an impressive $143 million of free cash flow, up over 30%. We’re on track for another strong year.

Looking at sales performance across our key verticals. Infrastructure led the way up low double digits organically with data solutions growing double digits. Industrial was down low single digits, commercial resi declined mid-single digits with continued end market softness. Turning to organic sales by geography, North America was up low single digits and Asia Pacific had strong broad-based growth.

Europe declined low single digits. Lastly, organic orders in Q3 grew mid-single digits year over year. Looking ahead to Q4 from a vertical perspective, we expect infrastructure to have the strongest growth, particularly data solutions and power utilities. Industrial is expected to be flat, commercial resi to remain soft.

In addition, macro uncertainty remains with the upcoming elections and interest rates which has some distributors cautiously managing inventory. Overall, I’m very proud of how our nVent team and how we continue to execute and deliver for our customers and shareholders while transforming the portfolio. We’re on track for another strong year. I will now turn the call over to Sara for further detail on our third-quarter results and our updated outlook for 2024.

Sara, please go ahead.

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Thank you, Beth we had, a strong third-quarter performance with both segments growing better than expected earnings and record cash flow. Let’s turn to Slide 5 to review our results which as a reminder are all on a continuing operations basis. Sales of $782 million were up 9% relative to last year or up 1% organically. Volumes contributed approximately 2 points to growth and price was essentially flat.

Acquisitions added $59 million to sales or 8 points to growth. Better than expected. The foreign exchange impact was neutral. Third-quarter adjusted operating income was $168 million up 4%.

Return on sales was 21.5% down 120 basis points year over year. This reflected tough prior year comps and corporate costs electrical and fastening mix and higher investments this year. Inflation was roughly $25 million in the quarter. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.63 down 3% due to higher interest and taxes as expected, we generated outstanding free cash flow in the quarter of $143 million, up 33% or 18% of sales, reflecting strong working capital performance.

Now please turn to Slide 6 for a discussion of our third-quarter segment performance. Starting with enclosures, the team delivered another excellent quarter. Sales of $477 million increased 16% and 1% organically. Acquisitions added 14 points to sales.

The Trachte acquisition performed very well with sales up strong double digits versus a year ago and a growing robust backlog. The integration is off to a great start. From a vertical perspective, infrastructure led up double digits with strength in data solutions in both power and cooling. Industrial and commercial resi each decline.

Geographically North America grew low single digits and Asia Pacific grew mid-teens while Europe was down. Enclosure’s third-quarter segment income was an impressive $104 million up 17%. Return on sales of 21.9% increased 20 basis points year over year driven by strong execution, productivity, and higher margins from new products more than offset inflation and helped fund investments. Electrical and fastening returned to sales growth in the quarter.

Sales of $305 million increased 1% organically. Growth was led by infrastructure including power utilities up high single digits. In addition, industrial grew mid-single digits. Commercial resi remained soft.

Geographically, organic sales in North America were flat and Asia Pacific grew double digits while Europe was down. Electrical and fastening Segment income was $93 million, down 5% year over year. Return on sales was a solid 30.4% down 190 basis points, mainly due to tough comps from mixed. On Slide 7 titled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow, we ended the quarter with $137 million of cash on hand and $600 million available in our revolver.

Free cash flow was exceptionally strong in the quarter. Year-to-date free cash flow of $277 million was up nearly 50% versus a year ago. The fourth quarter is historically our highest cash flow quarter and we expect continued improvements in working capital. Turning to Slide 8 where we outline our capital allocation priorities, we will continue to take a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation to deliver strong returns.

Growth remains our first priority, both organic and inorganic. In the quarter, we expanded our footprint to increase our liquid cooling capability four times and support our growing backlog. We completed the acquisition of Trachte, providing a new growth platform, and we have returned $195 million year to date to shareholders, including $100 million in share repurchases in the third quarter. Looking ahead, we expect to have a significant optionality for further capital deployment with the sale of the thermal management business and strong cash flow generation.

Moving to Slide 9 and our full-year outlook on a continuing operations basis. We are updating our full-year guidance to reflect the thermal management business moving to discontinued operations and narrowing the range with one quarter to go. For the full year, reported sales are expected to grow approximately 13% organically, up roughly 3%. Acquisitions are expected to contribute approximately 10 points to sales growth and FX is expected to be neutral.

Our outlook for full-year adjusted EPS is $2.49 to $2.51 which represents growth of 7% to 8%. This includes an $0.08 or 3-percentage point negative impact to EPS related to changes in the global tax standards. A few important items to note for the year. First, we expect adjusted operating income to grow 15% to 16%.

This reflects price and productivity offsetting inflation. In addition, we are making investments in capacity new products digital to accelerate growth and productivity. Second, we are well on track to generate over $400 million of free cash flow with conversion in the range of 95% to 100%. Third, corporate costs are now expected to be approximately $110 million.

This includes indirect costs of approximately $15 million previously allocated to the thermal management business. Work is already underway to address these costs. A few additional 2024 assumptions include a tax rate of approximately 23%, net interest expense of approximately $105 million, shares of approximately $168 million, and capex of approximately $80 million. We expect full-year 2024 to be another year of strong sales, profit, and cash flow.

Moving to Slide 10 and our fourth quarter outlook. We expect reported sales to grow 11% to 13% with acquisitions contributing approximately 9 points to sales. Organic sales are expected to be up 1% to 3% with both segments growing. We expect adjusted EPS to be between $0.58 and $0.60 cents, up 5% to 9% year on year.

Wrapping up I am pleased with our third-quarter performance and believe we are well-positioned heading into 2025. This concludes my remarks and I will turn the call back over to Beth.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, Sara. Turning to Slide 11. Let me give you an update on our data solutions business and liquid cooling in particular. As you know, we are a leader in liquid cooling for data centers and have been offering solutions for many years across the cooling continuum.

Our differentiation is based on our deep application expertise and our innovative multigenerational designs. We continue to expand our product portfolio to serve data center customers across hyperscale, enterprise, multi-tenant, and our distribution partners. Our high-density liquid cooling portfolio includes rack and row coolant distribution units and various manifolds. Our advanced cooling solutions are specifically designed to manage the substantial heat output of cutting-edge AI infrastructure, helping to drive optimal performance and longevity.

We are well-positioned to support the expansion of AI capabilities, driving innovation and efficiency in high-performance computing environments. We are currently engaged with NVIDIA in the design of liquid cooling products, solutions, and architectures that meet the needs for the GB200 NVL72 and its follow-on next-generation platforms. We will be showcasing our NVIDIA reference design solutions at Super Compute in a few weeks. We are also actively engaged with other chip manufacturers to understand future cooling requirements.

In addition to investing in new products, we are expanding capacity in our facilities, building out our advanced lab and testing capabilities, and partnering with our suppliers to ensure they can rapidly scale with us. We continue to see high demand for our data solutions products in cooling, power, and cable management and now expect 2024 Data Solutions sales to exceed $575 million. We believe we are well-positioned to win in this rapidly growing space. Please turn to Slide 12.

Over the last few years, we have demonstrated our growth strategy is working with strong execution, delivering robust sales and adjusted operating income and earnings per share. Looking ahead to 2025, we are undergoing a portfolio transformation, which we believe will make us a more focused, higher-growth electrical connection and protection company. Over 70% of our portfolio is exposed to the secular trends of electrification, sustainability, and digitalization. Infrastructure now represents approximately one-third of our portfolio and is expected to grow the most next year.

We are well-positioned in data solutions and power utilities with robust backlogs. Our outlook for industrial and commercial resi is more positive. New products, again, are expected to be a key driver of our growth. Finally, as part of our portfolio transformation, we have a very healthy M&A pipeline and project nearly $2 billion in available capital to deploy from the thermal management sale and our robust free cash flow generation.

In summary, we expect 2025 to be a strong growth year. Wrapping up on Slide 13. We had another strong quarter of operational performance, including record cash flow. Our portfolio transformation is underway.

We are well-positioned to grow with the electrification sustainability and digitalization trends and our future is bright. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator to start Q&A.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator instructions] First question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

Julian Mitchell — Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Maybe just the first question around the margin outlook. So it looks like I think margins may be down 100 bps or so operating-wise sequentially in Q4.

Just wanted to check that’s roughly correct. And when we’re thinking more broadly about margins into next year, you have this big investment spend headwind right now in the second half. Does that normalize into next year? And how quickly should that $15 million of indirect unallocated costs to get worked down, please?

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

OK. Julian, I think that was a three-part question. So let me start with the first one. In terms of that seasonal downtick on margin from Q3 to Q4, it’s just that more seasonal.

If you look at historically, EFS tends to be strongest in Q2 and Q3 and lighter from a sales perspective in Q4 and Q1 and the Ross right is commensurate with that. So you do have some seasonality from Q3 to Q4 standpoint from a return on sales aspect of things. I think your second question is in regard to investments. I mean, we’ve been very explicit kind of walking into this year that investments are important to fuel future growth, particularly around new products data solutions.

We have seen that accelerate here in the back half, bringing some of that liquid cooling capability online here in Q3 and Q4. And I think you can expect us to continue on that new product in some of those commercial data solution investments as we walk into 2025. But those ramp-up costs should diminish over time related to just bringing that capacity up online. I think your third question was around indirect costs.

So essentially, as part of that thermal management now going into discops, there are some indirect costs that essentially don’t get allocated, if you will, to thermal management. Now that fits within that corporate cost bucket. That’s roughly $15 million. And I would say two things.

One, work is already underway in terms of reducing those costs. We’re really focused on driving more efficiencies, accelerating some of our business process transformation efforts that we already have underway. And I would say the second piece of it is really some of that falling off if you will, with that thermal management business being divested, but there’s got to be targeted actions, and we’ve got that work underway of negotiating contracts, etc. And so, I would expect those indirect costs to reduce really throughout 2025.

Julian Mitchell — Analyst

That’s super helpful, thank you. And then maybe a very simple simpler second question would just be on the organic sales outlook. So I think you’re growing sort of 1% to 3% in the current quarter year on year. Beth, you sounded more enthused about the outlook for, say, industrial and commercial res in ’25.

So is it reasonable to assume in ’25, based off your comments that you’re not too far off perhaps as things look today, that medium-term sort of growth placeholder of 4% to 6% that you talked about last year?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

As we go into 2025, look, the portfolio looks different, and we’ve been repositioning it around infrastructure, as I said in my comments, right? And so, we can look at our backlog and these higher growth verticals. And so, we think that is going to set us up as we go forward. the portfolio is now exposed to those trends. And I think as we sit here today, there remains this macro uncertainty.

We’ve got an election coming up, interest rates where they’re at. And I think we’ve seen our distribution partners just be cautious on inventory. And recall, a lot of our portfolio is sold through that distribution channel. So we expect as we get into 2025, the outlook there is more positive and the end market outlook as well.

Julian Mitchell — Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research.

Jeffrey Sprague — Analyst

Hey. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just on the NVIDIA collaboration that you mentioned here.

Maybe I missed it, but did they press release this name-by-name partner ecosystem or something. Just wondering maybe we’re going to hear that Super Compute. But any color there?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

More to come. How about I say that. And yes, we will be showcasing a lot of our products and collaboration efforts at Super Compute.

Jeffrey Sprague — Analyst

In their booth or just in your booth.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

In our booth, and I will say we will have other cooling products in other booths as well. I don’t want to give away too much there, Jeff. But you will see our invent products showcased around the Super Compute show.

Jeffrey Sprague — Analyst

OK. And what was the negative mix effect in EFS that you mentioned?

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes. A lot of that, Jeff, was prior year and we called that out last year, particularly in Q2 and Q3. Their return on sales in those quarters was north of 32%. And just based on the mix of sales in those quarters, they were getting kind of an outsized impact from positive mix that we didn’t expect to continue as we go forward.

So again, on an absolute basis, the return on sales this quarter was north of 30%. It’s just that year-over-year comp was a tough comp. We do think that, that comp gets easier in Q4 based on what that mix looked like a year ago as well.

Jeffrey Sprague — Analyst

And how are you thinking about price going forward? Obviously ticked a little negative and it’s frail kind of inflation, productivity investments collectively, how do you think you could kind of manage that algorithm as we move into Q4 and 2025?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Jeff, I think we see the price — things are very stable is how we would characterize it. And in several — in the past several years, we’ve seen more outsized price than volume. Now we’re seeing strong contributions of volume. But we do think that, that price will be positive as we go forward into 2025.

Jeffrey Sprague — Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe — Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So yes, so I think, Sara, this is for you, I think. The — so the four key 1% to 3% core sales, maybe just break that out between the two segments.

I’m guessing it’s not going to be that different between the two. But I do want to try and understand a little bit better the lumpiness in Solutions and perhaps Liquid Cooling as well. and how that’s influenced in sort of the kind of 3Q to 4Q because it does feel like the sales are a bit flatter 3Q to 4Q than perhaps normal seasonality?

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Let me take that first one. your guess is right, Nigel, in terms of both segments kind of being in that 1% to 3% range. If you look at it just from a vertical standpoint, overall, we continue to expect good growth in infrastructure industrial mix, stronger in EFS, a bit softer in Enclosures and continued commercial resi softness overall. And again, I would just reiterate what Beth said in her prepared remarks is what’s encouraging is that both segments saw good order growth in Q3 as well informing that.

I think the one caution there is just at the end of the year and given some of these macro uncertainties, we would expect some distributors to manage those inventory levels there at year-end. In terms of Q3 and Q4 seasonality from a sales perspective, look, I think the biggest seasonality element there that we’re seeing is really just EFS. And I think that’s pretty consistent with historically, again, going back, EFS is going to be stronger in Q2 and Q3. And that Q3 to Q4, you’re going to see a little bit of that downtick, if you will, on the EFS sales front.

Nigel Coe — Analyst

Anything on the phasing of shipments in Data Solutions?

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Not necessarily. No. We talked about Data Solutions kind of this first half versus second half. We talked about that a little bit last quarter.

some of that is just based on timing of some of these more meaningful customer programs of where that comes into place. But we feel really good about our backlog. Orders are strong, and again, making great progress and building that capability and Beth talked about what we’re also underway in terms of building out the testing and the lab capability. So really excited about the future of Data Solutions.

And now I know you guys have been asking in terms of what that Data Solutions number looks like, but kind of characterizing that at $575 million we expect for this year, so meaningfully higher than what it was a year ago.

Nigel Coe — Analyst

That’s great. Thanks, Sara. And then just a quick one on the M&A sort of pipeline development. You’ve got a lot of cash to deploy, which is obviously good news.

But do you expect this to be a series of acquisitions? Or do you think there could be one or two sort of larger opportunities? And are we sort of set on deploying the bulk of the surplus capital in 2025 on M&A? Or could there be some buybacks as well?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well, as you know, we’ve always said our first priority with our capital allocation is to growth, both organic and inorganic. And as we look at our pipeline, we think that it is very robust I think we’ve demonstrated our ability to integrate larger deals. And so, as we look into 2025, and I always say that you never can control the timing of deals, but I think it does give us an opportunity if we want to do a more sizable deal. But again, we’re disciplined in the multiple pools we pay.

But I believe that we have a good opportunity as we go into 2025 to execute on M&A.

Nigel Coe — Analyst

OK. Thanks, Beth.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

Deane Dray — Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I appreciate the Slide 11 with the portfolio snapshots as well as sizing Data Solutions. And I know you said up double digits, but can you be more specific on what data center did in the quarter in terms of growth?

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

We don’t necessarily break that out more specifically. But I think if you look at just that $575 million that we’re expecting for the full year and look at where that was last year that’s in that in excess of 20% from a year-over-year growth perspective. And again, I’ll just go back to the order book has been strong there with continuing backlog growth as well. So feel good about that heading into 2025.

Deane Dray — Analyst

Understood. So — and that kind of brings up the question about market share and growth rates and how you stack up versus peers in this space. And so, one of the challenges, and we’ve talked about this with you before, but the idea here is you are in many platforms and partners where you don’t see the net name. And so, it’s a bit like in the early 1990s when Intel went to the Intel Inside, that’s when people started to see and appreciate how pervasive and what kind of share Intel had.

So how are you addressing this in the way of being able to profile your share? I know you’re a leader, you’ve been in it the first in terms of liquid cooling, but what kind of challenges you have here in being able to talk about where and how you’re in different platforms, but not necessarily able to put your name on it.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well, Deane, I think I would start by saying that in this hyperscale high-compute community the invent name and capability is well known and understood. So those who are involved in the design and development. And I think we’re continuing to expand our offerings and ensuring that we’re marketing our capability more broadly, especially as you get perhaps into multi-tenant or more through the distribution channels, where the knowledge of what’s going on in this high — in terms of just the liquid cooling capability, there’s still many who are learning about it. So we’re working with our distribution partners there.

But our view is we’re going to continue to invest in new products. We’re ramping with many of those customers that we can’t speak about. We’re on the next generation of designs. We talked about our collaboration with NVIDIA.

I said stay tuned. There’s more that we will be sharing at Super Compute. So from my perspective, I think we just need to continue to go fast. The space is evolving rapidly, and we’re making investments from new products to capacity to our suppliers, to our lab capability and expect this to continue to be a rapid growth for us.

Deane Dray — Analyst

Great. That’s just — my follow-up question is exactly on that, the four times capacity expansion. Can you give us a sense — I mean, if the market is growing in excess of 40%, how much is this capacity expansion? How far does that take you in the next couple of years? And just remind us how much is actually manufacturing capacity versus the amount of test labs because that’s really how you have proof to your partners that the liquid cooling delivers on the specs that they require.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

So, Dean, the manufacturing capacity, when we refer to that is about a four times capacity. And we think that’s going to get us through the next couple of years. At this point, that can change. And so, we’re in the process of building that out.

Our lab expansion is going to take us through into 2025, but that more than doubles our lab capability and capacity of what we have today. And by the way, all of that isn’t enough, and so I wanted to make that point that we’ve been working with our supply base because you also have to ensure that they can rapidly scale as well. So there’s a lot of different areas that we’re investing from an end-to-end perspective to make sure that we can continue on the growth rate that we’re at and continue to offer solutions more broadly as we start to see some of these AI chips extend beyond just, say, the hyperscalers.

Deane Dray — Analyst

That’s great. Looking forward to seeing the team in Atlanta. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

Joe Ritchie — Analyst

Hey, guys. Good morning. So maybe following on that thread. And I’m sure, again, we’ll hear more in a few weeks.

But I’m trying to understand like the productivity right now that you have in your data center business and liquid cooling specifically. Maybe just kind of comment. Last time we saw the offering, it just seems like you guys were trying to run as fast as you could, and it’s probably not fully efficient at that point. And so, I’m just curious to understand the margins and just any comments you can make around the productivity you have around that business today.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well, I’ll start there, and I’ll let Sara jump in. We’ve always said that our liquid cooling margins — sorry, our Data Solutions margins kind of reflected the products in that portfolio of our segments. So what we do around cable management kind of reflects the margins that we have in EFS, what we do around liquid cooling and power and some of the other products reflect the margin in Enclosures. Now having said that, there’s a lot of investment going in, and there’s a lot of start-up costs to that.

And so, we do think that over time, there’s opportunity to drive some more efficiency. So the margins are good today, but we know that over time, they will get better as things scale more and more, and I’ll let Sara add anything to that, that she wants.

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes. Maybe the only thing else I would add is I think the Enclosures business has just delivered some underlying strong productivity and seeing some good operating leverage as well as better mix on some of these new products, new programs. So even with some of these bringing the capacity online and these investments, we still expanded return on sales in the quarter. So there’s some strong underlying productivity there as well.

Joe Ritchie — Analyst

OK. Good to hear. And then, I guess, just circling back to the organic growth question and heading into next year. If I kind of pull out your acquisition contribution from this year and the comments that you’ve made around Data Solutions, it seems like the rest of the business isn’t growing this year from an organic growth standpoint.

And so, I’m curious, Beth, as you kind of think about 2025, are there areas that are kind of really depressed within your business where you could see an inflection that just spur organic growth? And then just a follow-on to that, are there any capacity constraints that you have to be able to meet demand if it were to inflect outside of Data Solutions, of course?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

OK. Well, I think one of the things we’ve said this year is that commercial/resi has been soft. And so, we do expect that to improve in 2025. The second I would point out to is industrial.

And so, we’ve seen some strength in industrial and EFS, and we’ve seen some weakness in our Enclosures business. Some of that also has to do with capex investments, interest rates, but it also has to do with our distribution channel. Again, we think that improves going into next year. I would talk about power utilities where, again, we’ve strengthened the portfolio with that Trachte acquisition.

But earlier in the year, we certainly saw this level of inventory at end customers and the distribution channels but our ESS business and enclosures in Q3 saw nice growth in power utilities because we believe some of that inventory adjustments have taken place. But looking at 2025, I think the — some of the macro uncertainties even tied to elections gets behind us and the portfolio, we believe, is strengthened with the things that we’ve done with acquisitions and new products. And so, our view is positive as we go into — and backlog support going into 2025 as a strong growth year.

Joe Ritchie — Analyst

OK. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Vladimir Bystricky with Citigroup.

Vlad Bystricky — Citi — Analyst

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. So maybe just following up on the growth question in another way.

I mean if I think about the — you had mid-single-digit orders growth in but 1% organic revenue and you’re guiding 1% to 3% organic in 4Q. So I guess, can you talk about when we should see that higher level of orders growth more directly convert to revenue.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well, I think — yes, correct. We’re guiding 1% to 3%. And I think we have a mix. When we look at our orders of short cycle and some backlog we’ve spoken to that we see with, say, data solutions, but we believe as we get into 2025, because again, I think this quarter, see this macro uncertainty that has, again, distributors causing, for example, or managing inventory.

And I think as we get into 2025, we start to see improvements in terms of how our growth layers in.

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

And maybe I would add just one point to 2024 here. I mean if you look at just kind of where we’re at year to date and some of the context that we’ve given on Q4. If you look at Enclosures, I mean they’re expected to be strong mid-single-digit growth this year, right? And infrastructure has been a big part of that and that’s even with some of the underlying headwinds around industrial Europe, etc. And then EFS, obviously, not as much.

But again, in the start of the year, that’s where we had some of the infrastructure, the utility channel inventory dynamics that we were working through and commercial resi headwinds. And again, so as we flip next year, it’s not far off, right, from enclosures being strong mixed single digits. And then it’s the end market dynamics that Beth talked about in terms of turning on the EFS side.

Vlad Bystricky — Citi — Analyst

Got it. That’s helpful. Appreciate it. And then maybe just moving to Trachte for a minute.

I mean, you mentioned it’s off to a good start as it’s coming into the portfolio with double-digit growth, which is great to hear. Can you just talk more about sort of the visibility that you have within their backlog? How far out does their visibility extend?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

In some cases, we can see orders that we get like a year of visibility. Some are maybe shorter than that. But we do have a good backlog as we go into next year. And if you think about what we’re doing there, these are control houses that are used support upgrade for an aging electrical infrastructure as well as with renewables and with data centers as well.

So we have some nicer visibility there and just see continued strong growth in our outlook.

Vlad Bystricky — Citi — Analyst

Appreciate the color. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

Nicole DeBlase — Analyst

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Maybe just starting on orders and kind of dovetailing with the expectations for 2025 with respect to industrial and commercial and resi, have you guys seen any sign of improvement in order activity? Or is it more about rates coming down and some of the macro dynamics that gives you conviction that those parts of the businesses can turn positive?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

It’s — I’d say things have been stable, how about I put it that way. But our view is that interest rates and this macro uncertainty and also just how distributors are managing through this year. that first, the fact that it’s stable is good. Utility has certainly improved.

I would make that comment. But our view is that does get better in 2025.

Nicole DeBlase — Analyst

OK. That’s helpful, thank you. And then, I guess, maybe could you talk a little bit about what you’re seeing holistically from a channel inventory perspective. It seems like things are kind of going according to plan with less of those headwinds in the back half of the year.

But I guess, how would you characterize inventory now? Thank you.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well, I think I would start by saying through the distribution channel, we’ve actually seen positive sell-out and so the sell-in is a little bit weaker. And so, this is why we believe that they — many of them have talked about managing their cash flow performance. and interest rates. And so, we think that it’s — that inventory level, they’re just being very cautious.

And so, as we get into 2025 because they talk about end market demand still being good. So we expect that will — that situation will improve as we go into 2025.

Nicole DeBlase — Analyst

Thank you. I’ll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Hammond — Analyst

Hey. Good morning. Just back to capital allocation. I’m just wondering, you get — you did $100 million buyback in the quarter, and I’m just wondering, I know the focus is organic and organic, but just how to think about any earmark for buyback around the thermal sale?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

When we announced the sale, the intent for the sale, we did say our first priority always remains growth, both organic and inorganic, but there is the opportunity to do some buybacks. And so, we did that in Q3. And I think as we go into next year, as I like to say, you never can control the timing of M&A. And certainly, if there was no M&A opportunity or the world changed, there’s always opportunity to do some buybacks.

Jeffrey Hammond — Analyst

OK. And then utility I think that had been kind of a drag, and I think you called out high single-digit growth. Is that just a function of comps? Or are you actually seeing that business start to reaccelerate?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

In our EFS business, this was a challenge for us in the first half of the year, and we talked about high — we had really high growth in 2023. We also had lead times that were extended and they’ve now come back in line. So Q3 for us in our EFS business in that utility segment was very strong. And so, we believe that — and we also see the backlog that we have in our Enclosures and Trachte business.

And so, we — as we look into 2025, we think utility is going to be a key driver of our infrastructure growth.

Jeffrey Hammond — Analyst

OK. Great. And then just last one, orders up mid-single digits. I think you haven’t really been calling out orders, so I’m assuming that’s a reacceleration.

And I’m just wondering, is that largely data solutions? Or is it more broad-based than that?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

It’s actually more broad-based. And so, we’ve seen strong orders and enclosures and it’s a mix, but data solutions has been good. And we’ve seen mid-single-digit orders in EFS as well.

Jeffrey Hammond — Analyst

OK. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair.

Brian Drab — Analyst

Morning. I was wondering if you could just — I don’t know if you’re willing to do this or not give us a little more granularity on that $575 million because in the past, we’ve talked about the data solutions category and then within that power and cooling and then within that liquid cooling. And can you just comment on whether power and cooling is now maybe more than half of that $575 million? And then what — I’m curious what power and cooling is growing at as well.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yes, you’re right. We’ve always said that cooling and power is about 50%. So I would say it’s a little more than 50%, but I also like to say some of our cable management business has been growing at that same rate because it’s all part of the solution as we go forward. But certainly, with the growth rates around liquid cooling, we expect that’s going to continue to increase as a percentage of that overall data solutions portfolio.

Brian Drab — Analyst

OK. And then is there any way you could give us an update on the expected timing of the thermal deal and it’s like going to be a massive amount of cash that you’ll have at that point and the interest rate that you expect at least — I know you can’t predict interest rates, but like the interest rate that you’re getting on your cash.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

So yes, when we announced the sale, we said that we expect the sale of the thermal management business to occur in early 2025 — by early 2025. And I’ll let Sara comment on our cash.

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes. I think you could think about it in the context of sort of a rate in that 4% to 5% range, depending upon what sits on the balance sheet and earns interest from a deposit standpoint or even looking at some of our prepayable term debt, and what we’re paying on that, which is 6%. So if you look at kind of the blend of that, you can think about in that 4% to 5% range.

Brian Drab — Analyst

Right. OK. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from David Silver with C.L. King.

David Silver — C.L. King and Associates — Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up maybe on your comments on the Trachte business serving as a new platform.

I think you mentioned that a couple of times in your prepared remarks. But you mentioned the business is off to a good start. My sense is that it touches on some different end markets, different customer base. when you did make the deal, I’m sure you had some longer-term plans.

I mean, do those plans — I mean, maybe if you could just add a little color on where the business might be heading in the next few years. But is this a business you want to scale up? Is this a business where the breadth — adding breadth is more important? And then maybe since it is “a new platform,” is this something that’s best managed within the enclosures, the larger enclosures group? Or are there some differences that maybe make you think down the road, it could form the basis for a new third segment? Anyway, just your thinking about? I know it’s very early days, but strategically, what are some of your thoughts about the opportunities there?

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well, as you know, and we published this, we have this M&A framework, and we always think of great products in high-growth verticals that we can invest in and scale. And so, for us, as we thought about our Enclosures segment and how could we have a stronger position in utilities, we saw this as an offering that was growing with the dynamics of an aging infrastructure, data center build-out. And effectively, and I’m being very simplistic here, it is a larger type in closure than what we were doing today. And I also like to say that when you go in these control houses, you see more enclosures and you also see some of the other products that are in the invent portfolio.

And so, we saw this as an opportunity for us to extend what we do in Enclosures in a more scaled way that we felt that we could have synergies with the rest of the invent portfolio and allow us to expand our position in utilities, renewables and add to what we do in data centers. And I think there’s a lot of synergies within the Enclosures portfolio because you can think of how we purchase materials, etc., that at this point, we believe that it’s a part of that segment, and we’re going to continue to, as per our framework, invest in it and scale it to grow.

David Silver — C.L. King and Associates — Analyst

OK. Great. Thank you very much. That’s it for me.

Appreciate it.

Operator

That does conclude the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Beth Wozniak for any closing comments.

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you for joining us today. I’m very pleased with our performance in Q3. We will continue to focus on our customers, employees, and shareholders by executing on our growth strategy and transforming our portfolio. I’m excited for our future.

Thanks again for joining us. This concludes the call.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Tony Riter — Vice President, Investor Relations

Beth A. Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Sara E. Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Beth Wozniak — Chief Executive Officer and Director

Julian Mitchell — Analyst

Sara Zawoyski — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Jeffrey Sprague — Analyst

Jeff Sprague — Analyst

Nigel Coe — Analyst

Deane Dray — Analyst

Joe Ritchie — Analyst

Vlad Bystricky — Citi — Analyst

Nicole DeBlase — Analyst

Jeffrey Hammond — Analyst

Jeff Hammond — Analyst

Brian Drab — Analyst

David Silver — C.L. King and Associates — Analyst

More NVT analysis

All earnings call transcripts